// Liquidity

Rates & Liquidity

Equity risk premium, Fed cycle, credit spreads, USD liquidity.

// Equity Risk Premium (SPX earnings yield − 10Y)

3.14%Percentile 42 (10Y)

Neutral — pick your spots on catalysts and factors.

// Fed Policy Cycle

Holdsince 2025-07

Next FOMC · 2026-07-30

Polymarket cut

36%

Fed Funds implied

31%

// Recent actions

  • 2022-03Hike 25bps
  • 2023-07Hike 25bps
  • 2024-09Cut 50bps
  • 2025-01Cut 25bps
  • 2025-07Hold

Credit Spreads · Corporate Debt Risk

SeriesOAS (bps)Chg 5DTrend
IG OAS108-2
HY OAS342+6
CCC OAS812+24
EMBI Spread296-8

Widening HY / CCC = tighter financing for small-cap growth. Prefer low-leverage blue chips when HY OAS crosses 400bps.

Global USD Liquidity

DXY

104.8

+0.2%

Global M2 (USD tn)

108.4

+0.6%

Fed Balance Sheet ($tn)

7.24

-0.4%

Reverse Repo ($bn)

328

-8.2%

Treasury General Acct ($bn)

812

+3.1%

DisclaimerAll prediction-market, equity and AI content on MirrorQuant is for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.