Prediction · Arbitrage
Cross-Venue Arbitrage
Same event listed across venues at different YES prices — heatmap surfaces the biggest edges, calculator sizes the hedge.
Edge Heatmap · % spread
Brighter cell = larger cross-venue mispricing.
| Event | Poly / Kalshi | Poly / Manifold | Kalshi / Manifold | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC > $105k Q2 2026 | 2.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | +5.4% |
| Fed cut at May FOMC | 3.4% | 8.2% | 4.6% | +8.2% |
| SPX > 6000 EOY | 1.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | +5.1% |
| SEC approves ETH ETF staking | 2.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | +6.8% |
| May CPI < 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% | +5.4% |
| SOL > $200 before Aug 1 | 1.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | +3.8% |
Arbitrage Calculator
Cost
$1000.00
Gross payout
$1052.63
Fees
-$20.00
Net edge
+3.26%
Sizing: 1052.6 contracts each side · risk-free if both venues settle same outcome
Live Arb Opportunities · Annualised
| Question | Poly | Manifold | Kalshi | Spread | Annualised | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC > $105k by Q2 2026 | 62¢ | 57¢ | 60¢ | 8.8% | +42.1% | 42d |
| Fed cut at May FOMC | 34¢ | 29¢ | 31¢ | 17.2% | +188.4% | 11d |
| SPX > 6,000 by EOY | 43¢ | 38¢ | 41¢ | 13.2% | +22.5% | 215d |
| SEC approves ETH ETF staking 2026 | 48¢ | 55¢ | 50¢ | 14.6% | +23.0% | 240d |
| May CPI < 3.0% | 55¢ | 60¢ | 58¢ | 9.1% | +178.0% | 19d |